अब तपाईँको पालोः कुन दलको कति सिट आउला ?

चुनाव आखिर लागिहाल्यो। प्रवासतिर के कस्तो छ कुन्नि तर नेपालमा भने चुनावको चर्चा हुन थालेको छ जताततै। यस्तो बेलामा अनुमान लगाउने काममा किन पछि हुने त हामी ? लौ तपाईँ पनि अनुमान लगाइहाल्नुस्। यो काम सुरु गरौँ समानुपातिकको ३ सय ३५ सिटमा कसले कति सिट ल्याउला ? तपाईँलाई थाहै होला ३ सय ३५ सिटका लागि ५५ दलहरु उठेका छन्। समानुपातिक निर्वाचन प्रणालीमा सम्पूर्ण नेपाललाई एक निर्वाचन क्षेत्र मानेर दलहरुलाई खसेको कूल मतको आधारमा प्रतिशत निकालेर सिट संख्या बाँडिन्छ। दलका नाम र प्रक्रिया हेर्न यहाँ क्लिक गर्नुस्।
निर्वाचन आयोगले छापेका विभिन्न भाषाका पोस्टरहरु-











160 Comments

  2. Above 125 seats
    Congress 1st
    UML 2nd

    Above 50 below 100
    Maoist 3rd

    Below 50 seats
    Terai Party 4th
    RPP 5th
    RPP N 6th

  4. Are Mitra Haru Sabailai 1 Patak Heri Sakiyo.hunata ma mb haina…tara pani rastra ra janatako lagi kehi garchhaki? mawobadilai jitaunuhos.congress,uml jastai habigat gare pheri arko electionma dhulo chataulani.1 pataklai diyo diyo

  5. Prediction of Election 2008
    SN. Party % vote Prop Direct Total
    1.CPN-UML 35% 116 112 228
    2.NC 28% 93 85 178
    3.Maoist 13% 42 11 52
    4.Madhesi 10% 33 21 54
    5.RPP (All) 8% 26 7 33
    6.Others 5% 19 8 27

  7. THIS ELECTION’S RESULT SHOULD BE GREAT SURPRISE!
    IN MY OPINION FINAL RESULT WILL BE UML WINS 85% OF SEATS.

  8. UML ko Bahudaliya Janabaad KP Oli ,Pradeep Nepal,Ishwor Pokherel haru ko srot nakhuleko kaalo dhan ra yesko nawa sambhranta neta haruko churifuri herda nai Jantale bhujisake…Nau mahine saasan ko khokro biraasat le ajai jantale patunchha bhannu murkhata sibaya kehi hoina..NC ko prajatatra ko ta k kura garnu..Tyaag ra Balidaan ko kirtimaan uchhinera yenha samma aaipugda,Maobaadi haru nai aba sattaa ko prabal daabedar hun..UML ra NC haru le ajhai Janta jhukyaunu sakchhu bhanne sapana na dekhdaa hunchha..
    Baarha barsa ma 15 ota Pradhanmantri banayera ..desh lai rasatal ma paryaune haru janta ko agaadi k mukh liyera vote maagna Jaanchhan kunni…

  9. while(1)
    int d=seats obtained by direct electoral system;
    int p=seats obtained by proportional electoral system;
    int n=nominated by PM(Girija P. Koirala);
    int total=d+p+n;

    if(election=fair) then
    Party d p n total
    NC 150 120 15 275
    UML 75 100 5 185
    Pancha 7 15 – 22
    Maoist 5 35 5 45
    Others 3 65 1 69
    —————————–
    Results:
    1. Congress leads the government together with one of
    the fringe parties.
    2. Madhav Kumar Nepal remains the head of opposition.
    3. Prachanda goes back where he feels at home:jungle.

    Else if(election is not fair)then
    Party d p n total
    NC 100 100 15 215
    UML 65 95 5 165
    Pancha 2 13 – 15
    Maoist 15 52 5 72
    Others 58 75 1 134
    —————————–
    Results:
    1. NC still leads the government but with more
    number of fringe parties making it more unstable.
    2. Madhav Kumar Nepal remains the head of opposition.
    3. Prachanda does not go back to jungle.

    end if

  10. काग्रेस को सत्ता मोह नेपाली जनता ले धेरै पटक हेरी सकेका छ्न . र गणतन्त्र को सबाल मा पनी नेपाली जनता को भाबना लाई काग्रेस ले पर्तिनिधितो गर्न सकदैन . किन की राजा बादी हरू काग्रेस भीत्र धेरै छ्न . १९ दिने जनआन्दोलन बाट स्तापीत सरकार मा रहेर पनी राजा चाहीन्छ भन्ने हरु लाई नेपाली जनता हरु ले अब पत्याउने आधार छैन . उग्र बाम्पंथी भड़काऊ मा लागेको सेना र हतीयार मा राजनीती गर्न खोज्ने ने क पा मओबादी ले पनी नेपाली जनता को मान जित्न सकेको छैन .जनता को बौहूदलीय जनाबाद २१ सताब्द्दी को सिधानत भायको ले ९ महीने शासन काल सम्झेर ने क पा एमाले का नेता हरु सुबिदा भोगी न भैदीने हो भने एक पटक बहुमत को सरकार ने क पा एमाले को सरकार हेरने चहना छ. काम गरेर देखाउंने नेता को जिम्मा . धन्यबाद लाल सलाम
    चिन्ता मणि सापकोटा
    चीतवन नेपाल

  12. Nepali congress: 35% of total vote
    UML: 25% of total vote
    Maobadi: 22% of total vote
    medasi: 8% ot total vote
    Remaining: 10% of total vote.

  14. well ,looking the political progress n the blood given away by nepalese people,the winning vote will go for maoist almost 50.5 %, 30 uml ,15 nc.

  15. I can’t say what will happen at present situation…

    But, I know that…
    Rajabadi and Maobadi should be in equal position, (preferable less than 5 seat)because both of them sucked lot of blood of Nepalease people. Actually the movement of 059 was not only against of King it was also against of maobadi….

    So given will be better..or will happen in case of fair election
    ( fair election ….??? 200 YCL/poling center for??? )

    out of 601

    NC=280
    UML=270
    Madise in Total=20
    RPP Related total=10
    Maobadi=15
    other=6

  16. for samunapit
    NC: 30%
    CPN UML: 25
    Maoist: 12
    All Terai Parties: 13
    RPP, RPP-N, RJP: 15
    Others: 5

    for 240 seats
    NC: 100
    CPN UML: 75
    Maoist: 20
    Terai Parties: 20
    RPP, RPP-N, RJP: 15
    Others: 10

  18. NC 145, UML 35 , Mao 120 ,Madhesi 15 ,Janmorcha (Amik)7
    Janmorcha (KC) 5 ‘ RPP 5 ,Remaing 3

  25. probably,
    UML will lead, NC will”not bad” ,Maoiest so so.madhesi gonna do well. if “So called” YCL starts any action , election may be violent and bloody.
    pradeep NY

  26. २०६४ सालको संविधानसभा चुनावमा बिभिन्न दलहरुको समानुपातिक तर्फ प्राप्त सिट यस प्रकारका छन्।
    १) नेपाली कांग्रेस पार्टी ६०%
    २) ने क पा (ए मले)25%
    ३) ने.क.पा.माओवादी 2%
    ४) अन्य पार्टी ३%
    ———————————————
    कुल सिट संख्या १००% सिट

    एक्काईसौ सताब्धीको नेपालको लागि कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी को आवशेक्ता बिल्कुलाई छैन। १२ बर्ष बनबास गई देशमा रक्तपात गर्ने माओवादी बाट केही आशा लिन सकिन्दैन। मधेसीहरु ताल तेही हो — भरतमुखी। तेसैलाई देशको लागि नभै नहुने पार्टी भनेको नेपाली कांग्रेस नै हो। टेसैले मेरो विचारमा कांग्रेस ले नै लिड गर्छ जस्तो छ.

  27. in my opinion, there will be nearly equal votes for the main parties. if the election becomes fair,then :
    UML:-29%
    NC:- 26%
    MAO:-20%
    Others:- 25%

  28. Umesh jee, if you analysis these comments, you will see true picture. I gave score in this way: 3 for first position, 2 for second and 1 for third position, Then from 124 comments final score
    NC=186
    UML=174
    Mao =142

  31. cpn maoist-40%
    nc-15
    cpn uml-20
    madhesiparties-15
    other parties-10
    i think maaoiost will certainly win in election. if they lose in election that will be tragedy of new nepal. because they have done great sacrifice to change the nepal.

  32. ल ल सहि सन्ख्या मिलौने लाई मैले उपहार योजन राखेको छु।
    पहिलो उपहार -१० ltr पेट्रोल
    दोस्रो उपहार – pulsar बाईक
    सान्तोन उपहार – १ कार्टून चौ चौ

  33. my foot MAOBAADI wins only 5 t0 10 seats 1- baburam 2- badal 3- anant 4- mohan baidya 5- pampha 6- post bdr 7- prachand fifty fifty not sure 8 9 …etc
    range of election result:-
    1- nepali congress
    2- uml
    3- madeshi morcha
    4- rrp
    5-other party
    6-janmorcha ,kisan majdoor, janjati party,
    7- kamal thapas party
    8- maobaadi jangali party( public will support only when maobaadi threat them otherwise …. no boddy going to vote the criminal party)
    and I am agree with bhaskers comment 100% that it.

  34. A.Male-110
    kangress-130
    Madhise-40
    B.Male(Maobadi)-30+ SAM DAM DANDA BHED 30
    bankiaru-sabai
    THIS IS FOR DIRECT ELECTION

    JAI SRI RAM

  36. Congress ko ta pattasaf hola jasto cha…many Terain leaders have left the party…so I don’t expect it will bag more seats. My guess is that UML will be in first position, NC in the second and MB in the third: 300:200:75 and remaining seats for the rest!

  37. Congress—–130 out of 335

    UML———99 out of 335

    Maoist—- 40 out of 335 (Nill in Madheshi)

    RPP all —–20 hardly

    All madheshi —-50

    Nema Kipa (Bhaktapur)—–4

    Janamorcha etc Bamghatak——-5

  38. Congress ,UML ka neta haru baata frustrate janamat sankhya ahile bahumat ma chhan,,Tesaile pani maoist ko majority ko chance badi chha…

  40. UML : 40%
    NC : 27%
    Maoist : 25%
    Others : 8%
    ______________________
    100%
    Its the true result and it suppose to be if nepalese people want to make the country. otherewise country miss the place from the world map.

  41. Fair election vayo vane….??

    Out of 365

    Nepali congress=150
    UML= 140
    RPP (3 party together)=22
    Madhesi related party (total) =20
    Maobadi=15
    Janamorcha =5
    Baki communist (total) =5
    Majdur kisan party=1
    Free candidate=8

  43. Asha garaun……

    Maobadi le bahumat lyayera sarkar chalaos..

    Herna banki uniharikai cha churifuri..

    “Jun goru aaye pani singai chireko” bhanne ta nepali janatalai bhayekai ho

    Rai pani – Gardai ma ke hola ra – Asha!! Yaspalan…

  44. Nepali Congress : 40%
    UML : 30%
    Madhesi :10%
    Maoist : 10%
    Others : 10%
    ————————-
    Total : 100%

  45. interesting! seems most of the blogers are writting WHO SHOULD WIN rathar than WHO WILL WIN.

    from the guessing our country fellas mostly abroad love emerging party maoists and others hate maoists in the same degree. the condition in village is different, most of us havent updated the situation actually and people’s views inside and outside the country might be different, people’s views in rular and urban area might be different. seems other parties except maoist candidates cant go back to village easily even now since they havent gone for last decade.

    since maoists got this much support among nepali who are abroad eventhough maoist didnt give that much priority for abroad. within the country more over in village maoist will lead.

    seems they are going to lead in general.

  47. २०६४ सालको संविधानसभा चुनावमा बिभिन्न दलहरुको समानुपातिक तर्फ प्राप्त सिट यस प्रकारका छन्।
    १) ने.क.पा.एमाले १३४ सिट
    २) नेपाली काँग्रेस ८७ सिट
    ३) ने.क.पा.माओवादी ५६ सिट
    ४) अन्य पार्टी ५८ सिट
    ———————————————
    कुल सिट संख्या ३३५ सिट

  48. The Congress party and RPPs were popular for bribing the people for the votes. But this time, because of the Maoist or YCL, that act will not be possible for them, so the result will be that they will not be able to secure as many condidates as they used to.

    Like several people mentioned, the UML will not as big as it used to be either, since people have already understod who they actually are, especially looking at the number one daka of their party, KP Oli,who is an opportunist or Gyanendra’s agent,too. So this time is to see the change, so the Maoist party will be given the chance, who will help writing the main law of the country.But I wish I saw democrats won, like Narahari, Ram Chandra, Madav Nepal,and others (even Pashupati Samsher).

  50. my calculation is:
    nepali congress: 27%
    uml: 25%
    maoist: 30%
    madhesi party 12%
    raprapa total 2%
    remaining percentage for other rest of the parties.

  51. The Congress party and RPPs were popular for bribing people for the votes. But this time, because of Maoist or YCL, that will not be possible for them, so the result will be not many seats that they used to secure.
    Like several people mentioned, the UML will not also be as it used to be, since people have already understod who they actually are, especially looking atthe number one daka of their party, KP Oli,who is an opportunist or Gyanendra’s agent,too. So this time to see the change,the Maoist party will be given the chance, who will help writing the main law of the country.But I wish I saw democrats, like Narahari, Ram Chandra, Madav Nepal,and others won even Pashupati Samsher.

  52. NC: 105 + 95 = 200
    CPN UML 100 + 85 = 185
    CPN M 55 + 15 = 70
    Terai madhesi Parties 30 + 15 = 45
    RPP 20 + 10 = 30
    Remaining communist 15 + 10 = 25
    Others 10 + 10 = 20

    Total : 335 + 240 + (26 from nagarik samaaj) = 601

    naba , OHIO

  53. If fair election happens, then
    maoist-30%
    nc-30%
    uml-20%
    madhise-10%
    Rpp-5%
    rest-5%
    people hav chance to vote for two parties. 80%people will choose maoist at least for 2nd vote(if nt for 1st vote)

  55. As the UML cadres have already switched to the Maoist party, the Maoist will elect majority of the candidates;
    NC is not new to people so it will be on second position still.After that the UML, Dhotilok will be and goes like Janmorcha(s),RPP, Majdoorkisan.

  56. This is very important Article for Republic Lover of Nepal.In my views Maoist will get more then others parties because Nepali congress have lots of Internal problems same in UML then Moaist.

    In my District Myagdi Congress and UML have less support because they done nothing and Moaist have more support in Village.

    Maoist:60%[Because this is First chance to Them]
    UML: 20%{They done nothing for People of Nepal except Helping there own leadrs.
    Nepali Congress:20% [They do every thing for there own relatives not Nepali and Role Nepal but, done nothing.
    Madeshi Party:10%[Establised to helps Monarchy
    RPP:0%[Dont have clear vison for Nepali.
    Example of Myadgi Here in Myagdi Dont have more then 10 member in this Party.

  58. Maobadi 30%
    Nepali Congress 25%
    UML 20%
    Madeshi(s)10%
    RPP(s)or all previous panche 5%
    Janmorcha(s)including Majdorkisan 10%

  60. Maoist will secure more than any other parties.
    Maoist 30%; Nepali Congress 28%; UML 17%, Madeshi 5 % Janmorcha 3%, RPP 4% and rest others

  61. I think as people wanted to see a change, Maoist will secure more than any other parties.
    So Maoist will have 30%; Nepali Congress 28%; UML 21%, Janmorcha 7%, RPP 5% and rest others

  62. Nepali Congress:45%
    CPN UML:35%
    Maoists:5%
    Remaining Parties: 15%

    if (polls conducted fairly)
    else
    {
    anything can happen
    }

  64. IN MY VIEW MAOISTS MUST GET THE MAJORITY.WE ALREADY BEEN RULED BU CONGRESS N YA MA LE BUT THE DIDNT GIVE ANYTHING NEW N AGAIN IF WE WILL GIVE VOTE THEN EVEN THEY CAN NOT GIVE ANYTHING ANY THING NEW TO US.SO WE MUST GIVE VOTE TO CPN MAOIST.MAOISTS MUST WIN AMJORITY SEATS TO SOP NEPAL FROM BREKING IN TO PIECES.PRACHANDA IS SAYING THAT WE MUST ESTABLISH PEOPLES AUTOCRACY OTHERWISE WE CANT GO AHEAD.SO TO MAKE PEACE N PROSPEROUS N EPAL WE MUST VOTE MAOISTS OTHER WISE OUR SONS, N GRANDSONS MUST BE READY TO FIGHT AGAINST INDIA.BECAUSE OUR CONRESS N YA MA LE LEADER WILL SURRENDER US TO INDIA. CPN MAOISTS JINDABAD.PRACHANDA JINDA BAD……………………………..

  65. Nepali congress 30%
    UML 32%
    Madhesi parties 22%
    Maiost 15% (only due to their gundagardi otherwise less than 5%)
    Others 5%

  66. i dont mind who ever wins this poll,,,all we need right now is to keep peace and go together to develop our country and get rid of all bandhs ,,violation etc

  68. YEMALE KO BAHUMAT AAUNE YALLA THIYO TARA MOIST LE GARDA NC LE 225/YEMALE 200/MOIST 50 BAKI ARU PARTY LAI HOLA JASTO CHHA.

  69. Maoists will get the majority because they will capture all ballot booths as they are going to deploy their YCL. It will be like “Welcome to newly conquered Communist Nepal”

  70. NC 65
    UML 90
    maoist 110
    madhesi parties: 20
    rajabadis: 0

    Probably its hard to digest for congresis but its the reality…wat to do poor congresis seats are deducted by madhesis parties.

  71. NC-120+100=220
    UML-89+90=179
    Maoists- 20+40=60
    RPP-10+20=30
    madhesi parties=70
    Others=remaining seats

  72. NC-120+100=220
    UML-89+90=179
    Maoists- 20+40=60
    RPP-10+20=30
    madhesi parties=70
    Others=remaining seats

  73. It is interesting to read guess given by various people who has been fallen in love with this blog.

    Jai corruption free Nepal and Nepali mentality.

  74. CPN-UML- 40%
    CONGRESS- 30%
    CPM-MOIST 15%
    MADESI- 5%
    RPP-TOTAL 5%
    OTHERS- 5%

    LETS SEE WHAT HAPPEN AFFTER ELACTION.

  75. Way to go bloger Mr. Aagantuk. You are exactly right: its not about who wins, but its about who should win. ITS NC—the coolest party in the history of Nepal.

    I wish:
    NC 600
    UML 0
    Mao 0
    others 1

    But it will happen:
    NC: 330
    CPN UML: 200
    CPN M: 25
    Others: 56

  76. yo satyapanthe bhana mancha baulayo jasto cha ko ho tayo kaju kancho ko salo ho ke k ho………….

  78. खुकुरि, लाठि, खुडा, भाला, पैसा, जाड, मा भर पर्छ!

    पहाडि भेक मा वाइ सि एल को राम्रै तयारि छ क्यारे! प्रचण्ड हरु खुकुरि
    उद्-याउदै छन, मान्छे रेट्नु पर्यो नि!

    तराइ मा बिहारि मान्छि हरु लाइ कसैले उछिन्ने कुरै भयेन

    हेरौ कस्ले बढि मान्छे मार्न सक्छन!

  80. UML- 160
    NC- 100
    MAO- 50,AND OTHERS PARTY
    UDHAB PRASAD POKHAREL
    KAJAANI.FINLAND

  81. malai kasto lagchha bhane yo election ma booth capture bhayena bhane congress ko ramro position aau chha.second position cpmuml and third chai rpp ko hunchha jasto lagchha.maoist ko ta halla matra ho.Sachi bhanne ho bhane laphada nagarne ho bhane central leader ko nai jamana jafat hune position dekheko chhu maile.Tara ma chai k chahan chhu bhane government le army lagayera election garnu parchha..Natra fair election hudaina.mero bichar ma yespali yesto aau chha hola

    Nepali congress-350
    Cpnuml 150
    Rpp 20
    mahan party 20
    forum 10
    satbhawana 10
    mahato 5
    freedom cannid 25
    joint morcha 10
    mahobadi 1

  82. Nepali – 560
    Indian Madhise – 41

    reiterating the comment by Jagate .. as it exactly speaks what i wanted to say

  83. I completely agree with satyapathi above. Although Maosits seem to be right ( only on words) and most people are predicting their win ( only being blind supporters . .. .) the actual hatered towards Maoists and their self preclaimed “first Prez” Prachanda will be revealed in this election. I am afraid that their bitter defeat might again start the violence since they still have guns and YCL goons.

    Niraj
    Boston

  84. madhishe party =40% (on national basis),
    but in terai =70%
    NC: 40%
    Others 10%

    Madhishe party is the party which will be supported in Terai and in the terai they will win 70% of the seats.

  85. uml is the more popular party of nepal. thatswhy it will be gain 50% seat among whole number of ca polls member.if you want peace, progress and republic nepal VOTE ON SUN plz
    basanta raj karki
    dolakha

  86. Hello every body!

    In every election, there is sam dam dandabhed. Why congress is keeping finance, home, defence minister? It is only to do sam dam dandabhed. It is not matter talking about others. If we elect NC and some UML leaders like (KP Oli) they will take stance for keeping king in the country thus we must defeat such leaders and parties.
    In previous election, when UML was in government, they were capture all local election. I therefore strongly argue that maoist should mobilize their cadre as other do previously. I am one of the victim of election because of NC gundas.

    Prabesh

  89. Girija: 20%
    MaKuNe: 20%
    Prachanda: 20%
    terai Neta: 20%
    panche: 20%
    Nepali People: 0%
    (of budgets and rights)

    SAD BUT TRUE….

  90. सबै पार्टी को सरकार चलाऊने तरिका हेरिसक्यो अब नेपाल कम्युनिस्ट् पार्टी माओवादी को हेर्न बाँकी छ। यसो कुरा बुझ्द त माओवादीले बहुमत ल्याउल जस्तो छ किन कि अहिलेका नेपाली काँग्रेस,एमाले,रा प्र पा का सांसद हरु गाउँ फर्केर गएका छैनन र चुनाव जिते पछी गाउँलाई फर्केर हेर्ने पनि गर्दैन।

  92. Hi All,

    please see the statistics table.,.i have analysed the election forecast by different commentors in this blog.,.see below what the statistics say.,.,

    NC CPN-UML MB Madhesi Others
    Average,% 33.54 26.15 19.9 7.63 12.77
    STDEV,% 13.73 7.54 11.03 4.68 5.9

  95. UML + Maoist = 70 %
    NC = 20 %
    Other leftists = 10 %

    Because of uprising communist phenomena in India.

  97. i don’t know other but CPN UML will get 53% and CPN UML will be nepal bigest party.
    after that will be NC then moist.

  100. निस्पक्ष चुनाव हुनु पर्छ नेपाल मा – ने क पा ए मा ले को ४००० गा बि स को नेट वर्क र जनता संग को सत्भाब घुल मिल पूर्ण समाज बादी पार्टी अन्त राष्ट्रिय छबी कमाइ सकेको मल्टी कम्युनिस्ट पार्टी भयको ले जनताले सुर्य छाप भुलेका छैनन ।
    यो पार्टी १ लाख ५० हजार संगठित सदस्य हरु ले लेबी बुझायर चलेको पार्टी हो ।
    यो पार्टी कुनै अंेरिका भारत दरबार कसैको बुइ चाडह्ने पार्टिहोइन ।यो राष्ट्र बादी पार्टी हो ।यस्ले सबै नेपाली जनता को हक अधिकार को पहल गर्छ ।
    यो पार्टी ले अहिले छाती चौडा गरेर चुनाव को मैदान मा जाने बाटो पनि छ ।
    एस्को आट पनि छ ।
    यो कुनै लुटेरा हरु को जमात होइन ।यो पार्टी नेपाली जनता को हित गर्ने राष्ट्र बादी पार्टी हो ।
    म यहाँ अरु पार्टी लाई एस्तो उस्तो भन्न चाहन्न ।
    र यो पार्टी ले उु पार्टी ले यती सिट ल्याउछ भन्नु बेकार हो ।फैसला नेपाली आफ्नो गाउ आँफै बनाउ भन्नु गणतन्त्र को पहिलो स्वरुप वा बिशेषता हो यस् पार्टी को ।

    धन्य बा द् राष्ट्र प्रेमी सबै नेपाली दाजु भाई दिदी बहिनी हरुमा ।

  102. Election Pundits!
    Some are the varautes. Can’t speak the voice of conscience. Are the horses with eyes covered with Patti. Shut up vomitting nonsense.

  107. Gyanendra- 500 ( including seats from NC, UML, Maoists and others disguised Royalists)
    Republicans( Including UML, NC, Maoists and others)- 50
    Nominated and independent- remaining seats
    Conclusion: No republic in Nepal yet!!!
    Pro-public votes – zero!!
    Sad story!!!!!!!

  108. i think UML WILL GET HIGH VOTE IN ELECTION ALTOGETHER BUT WHAT HAPPENS IN REAL WE HAVE TO CALCULATE IN FUTURE

  111. In my thinking

    Moist = 335
    UML = 83
    Congres = 83
    RPP = 05
    Madhesi = 25
    Janajati = 30
    Baki arusana parti harule.

  115. I am with blogger Mr.Kanchho. His alalysis is right. and i want to add, its not the question of who wins, but NC should win! thats why,
    NC=300+
    UML=150+
    Maoist=20 to 30
    remaining to other parties.

  120. १) ने.क.पा.एमाले १३४ सिट
    २) नेपली काँग्रेस ८७ सिट
    ३) ने.क.पा.माओवादी ५६ सिट
    ४) अन्य पार्टी ५८ सिट
    ————————-
    कुल सिट संख्या ३३५ सिट
    सुबाश श्रेष्ठ दोहा कतार

  121. यो आफ्नो दलका पक्षमा गरिने भविष्यवाणी, भित्ते राष्ट्रपतिको मनको लड्डु जस्तो मात्र हो । संविधानसभाको चुनाव जितेर राष्ट्रपति हुने हैन भन्ने ज्ञान समेत नभाकाहरू नेता छन् यो मुलुकको क्रान्तिकारी दलमा । हुन त यो ६०१ जनाले संविधानको अनुमोदन गरेपछि , भागशान्तिले देश लुछ्न आँफैलाई नया संसद घोषणा गर्न पनि सक्लान् ।

    कांग्रेस र एमाले जस्तो पहिलाको निर्वाचनको मत प्रतिशतमा थिए लगभग त्यस्तै स्थितिमा रहन्छन् । समग्रमा यिनीहरूको मत प्रतिशत २ देखि ३ प्रतिशत घटेर माओवादी लगायतका अन्य क्षेत्रीय दलको खातामा भरपाइ हुनेछ । माओवादीले निष्पक्ष निर्वाचनको ६०१ सिटमा कूल ६०-७० सिट ( १०%) सम्म ल्याउन सकेमा यो चमत्कार नै हुनेछ ।
    जसले जति सिट ल्याए पनि अबको नेपालमा समावेशी खालको संवैधानिक व्यवस्था भएन र अल्पमतको रवाफले बहुमत माथि रजाईँ हुन थालिरह्यो भने , यो मुलुकको नियति रसातलमा मिल्न जानेछ । तैपनि जनताले मत दिएर चुनिएकाहरूले जनताको संविधान लेख्ने भए पछि , हार्ने गोरूले निहूँ खोज्दैमा डराउन पर्ने हुन्न ।

    जसले जितोस् , मान्छेका स्वतन्त्रताहरू अवरूद्द नहुने खालको तानाशाहलाई उठ्न नदिने संविधानको व्यवस्था होवस् अनि नेपाल एवं नेपालीको भाग्य उज्यालिने अवस्था सिर्जनाको लागि यो कोशेढुंगा बनोस् त्यत्ति सम्म कामना छ ।
    अस्तु

  127. mawobadi frist position ma pakka aauchha second ma uml aauchha ra congresss third ma auchha fourthma madhesi le jitchha vane aruta kura nagarau kina vane kohita india tira pani janu parchha jasto lagchha malai percentko ta kura nagarau chharlangachha sabailai .
    nepalko unnati dekhna paiyos yatinai ho chahana

  128. UML 60% Congress 30 % and remaining others. coz maoists have losed a huge public support coz of their mafia activities

  129. Out of 610
    NC=310
    CPN_UML=220
    CPN_M=30
    Others=50

    Dear all, don’t forget to check after the election result.

  131. Posters haro dekhera ramro lagyo. Tara Nepali ma khoi ta. Maile ta yi kunai pani language bujhdina, nepali ra english matrai bujhchu. Nepali language ma ni cha hola haina? Jitna chai jasle jite ni, ekdum sincere, honest & responsible manche haro le jitun.

  132. UML=40
    MAOIST=10
    NC=30
    OTHERS= 20

    NOTE= DES RA JANATA KO BHALO CHAHANE DESBASI HARU…. NC RAJAKO BHARAUTE HO… JANI RAKHE RAMRO.. MAOIST TANASAHI RA HINSATMAK PARTY HO… DES RA JANATAKO MARMA BUJHNA KHOJNE MATRA UML HO… NATRA 9 MONTH KO SARANKAL SAMJHE HUNCHHA…. UML LAI JITAU DES LAI BACHAU……

    ANAND FROM DUBAI…

  137. प्रत्यक्ष निर्बाचन तर्फ:-
    माओबादी:- ११० सीट
    कांग्रेस :- ५५ सीट
    एमाले :- ३५ सीट
    फोरम :- १२ सीट
    महान्था ठाकुर :- ७ सीट
    जनमोर्चा (अमिक ) :- ५ सीट
    जनमोर्चा (के सी ) :- ३ सीट
    सत्भावाना (महतो ) :- २ सीट
    सत्भावाना (सिंह + गुप्ता) :- ३ सीट
    मजदुर किसान पार्टी :- २ सीट
    राजाबादी (सुबथा + पशुपति ) :- ३ सीट
    अन्य :- ३ सीट

    यसमा १/२ % घटी बढ़ी हुन सक्छ |

  139. break down on the numbers

    Winner take all + proportional + Girija appointed = Total

    Nepali Congress : 160+140+15 = 315
    CPN UML: 40+80+5 = 125
    Maoist : 15+70+5 = 90

    Panche parties: 3+15+2 = 20

    Sadbhawana + other madhise parties = 50 seats in total

    But I think there is certain amount of error bars are involved in these calculations. Congress might win like 50 more or 50 less seats. UML can grab 30 more or 30 less seats, Maise can grab 20 more or 20 less seats, Panche parties can grab 10 more or 10 less seats and sadbhawana and other parties have the biggest uncertainty and they can grab 30 more seats or 30 less. Error bars are the standards in any projections. They don’t tell the full story but give a better mathematical picture.

    Congress will grab more seats in winner take all system and will be grabbing like 40-45% seats in proportional system. and CPNUML will get about 20-25% votes and Maoist get about 15-20% votes. Madhise parties might get 10-15% of votes. And ex-panches will get about 5% votes. In this way, congress will lead in both categories with exceptional performance in direct election.

    Communist in Nepal will be in majority but the winner will be Congress for the reason they are divided. CPN UML lacks a good leader and Maoist have garnered too many enemies in the country side where they reigned for years.

    This is a fair analysis if we only allow the fair voting practices. If YCL is deployed to booth capture than it will not stand.

  140. There than trying to predict who get how many seats it is important to elect who need to tried and tested for their capacity, sincerity and give them the challenge to prove their worth. There is no point electing same old face, tired, unreliable, thugs, criminals, no vision, no guts, mentality of slavery. When we are trying to create a constitution so need fresh thoughts, ideas and who can live up to the challenge. If people do not realise this opportunities, they will be wasting the opportunities again. It is good have some level of loyalty to certain party, but not using intelligency, ethics moral and not being able to recognise opportunity will only prove ourselves stupid and awlays forcing us to be pray to thugs and criminals. So take this opportunity to make your own future.

  145. Congress 50-60%
    UML 30-40%
    Maoist 10-20%
    Rpp 5-10%
    Madheshi5-10%

    Keep my record carefully
    pratik
    UK

  146. In my point of view in this election who ever gone to win does’t matter but election should be peace and fair and the winner party should keep on their own mind how and what they had given the commitment to the public at the time of revolution for the democrecy. otherwise no one nepali will excuse to them later on. they will kick their ass. please don’t try to be a stupid leader ok? I wish you all for the success in electoin. thak you

  147. यहाँ पनि चुनाव को बहश चर्को नै छ | यही आउदो मार्च ४ मा हुने टेक्सास र ओहायोको चुनावमा पराजित भएमा Hillary Clinton को White house को यात्रा यही नै टुङिने हुँदा सबैको आँखा तेतै तिर नै छ |After 11 straight losses, Mrs Clinton should lead in both states by a wide margin. Otherwise her dream to go back to the white house will just remain as a dream; at least for next 4 years. Polls have shown that these two Democrats are going to face tight race in both states.

  148. For Samunapatik
    NC: 35%
    CPN UML: 25%
    Maoist: 15%
    RPP: 10%
    Terai Parties: 10%
    others: 5%

    for 240 seats
    NC: 100
    CPN UML: 75
    Maoist: 25
    RPP: 10
    Terai Parties: 15
    Others: 15

  150. जनता भंछान
    कांग्रेस —–५०
    तराई मुक्ति मोर्चा–३०(+,-),
    माओबादी—(लगबग २०० जती!!!!!!!!कीनाभाने कांग्रेस ,एमाले सासन
    हेरिसकियो,गनौने अनुहार हरु अरु कती हेर्नु ??? )
    एमाले——-२५
    राप्रपा——-२०
    मजदुर किसान-१
    बाकी जनमोर्चा र अरु पार्टी हरु ???

  152. total out of 601:

    NC: 330
    CPN UML: 200
    CPN M: 25
    Others: 56

    Verfications:
    1. NC has been either first or second in most places in the past. It will obviously win this time as well where it had won last time. And where it was defeated by UML last time, Maoist will help it win by deducting the votes of UML.
    2. The supporters of NC never change their minds, unlike the communists, no matter what the situation of the country is. They just stamp on Rukh always.
    3. The madhes andolan has chased away Communists. and the Madhesi parties are not well stablished to compete with NC effectively.. some of the madhesi parties might even support NC.

  154. if election happens, thats the good news for nepali. who will win is not that much important in my opinion. anyone wins will need to be democratic because people are much aware than that of the last election.

    as i believe 65 percentage people are in the favour of communists parties that will be devided between maoists and UML mostly.

    in other side almost 35 percentage of people will vote congress and other similar parties like RPP, RJP etc.
    i dont see any reason to vote congress. it been always been reactionary party, the slowest to change.

    vote for revolutionary not reactionary.

    i dont vote congress.

    my vague guess, maoist will lead in coming election at least 35 percentage! as they been leader in principles for bring new things in the country like republic by bringing negative environment for monarchy, CA elction vision etc, there are bad things as well with them.
    good luck to all.

    in summary,
    maoists 35%
    UMl 20%
    NC 17%
    mades parties-15%
    others 13

  155. Winning & loosing doesn’t matter this time (individually or party wise) because this is not a parliamentarian election so whoever wins please show positive attitude while making constitution. Hope you elected leaders will make constitution this time for the better future of the country and for the citizens. Good luck to all the candidates & Parties.

  158. direct+samanupatik

    UML 190
    Congress 180
    Maobadi 50
    Rastriya Janamorcha 15
    Janamorcha (amik) 3
    Madheshi party 43
    Panche party 20
    Remaining(Swatantra) …

  160. I checked the website of the four major political parties and found that all of them have something on it but not up to date. The web-page of Nepali congress, the first page has the wrong spelling of democracy, I am not trying to say that English is important, but come on this is one of the major party of Nepal. Also, I expected to read their election manifesto. NC has a old one for the earlier scheduled election in Mangshir. UML and RPP looks better and Maoist come after them. I think all the party should spend some money and effort to make their website a place to have their message posted. It would be nice too, if they would take our questions and answer it (may be a blog, Umesh can give them some advise on this).
    Next, I checked the election commission website. I am not in Nepal, but I found my name in the list. It is amaging. Really. Election comission has really done a great job of putting so much of information on it. However, there is some problem with font. In Firefox, the fonts are not working. In internet explorer, for few places the font is not working. I have written to them, I hope they will work on it.
    Regaring the guessing, I really want to be a part of it. I am a statistician and I have lots of ideas of how to do it. I would volunteerly help Umesh ji and others to start somthing on it. But some has to coordinate this, Umesh ji?? or you might be too busy in other things, if we could find someone it would be great.
    One thing I want to see is a place where we put the issues a row and political parties (and independents) in columns and make a datasheet of what each of these political parties say. This might be a basis for people to choose. Rather than choosing based on what ones son/brother/daughter/sister/friend/etc etc says, it would be nice if we could bring this datasheet to everyone .
    And the biodata of each candidate… what they did and misdid?? it is really important. We have all been excited and frustrated and experienced a lot of anxiety, fear etc etc. This is the time to remember all those good and bad experience and decide.
    Democracy works if we have a mechanism of CHECK AND BALANCE. We need a strong institution for this. We are the one who should play this role.

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